An Open Letter to Kogi State Governor- Alhaji Yahaya Bello
"I have not found among my belongings anything as dear to me or that I value as much as my understanding of the deeds of great men, won by me from a long acquaintance with contemporary affairs and a continuous study of the ancient world; these matters I have diligently analyzed and pondered for a long time, and now, having summarized them in a little book, I am sending them to your magnificence”
-Letter from Niccolo Machiavelli to the Magnificent Lorenzo De Medici (The Prince by Niccolo Machiavelli)
The Arena of governance is the point at which most if not all governors fail, politics is easier because it can be conducted anyhow but governance is hard because it can’t be executed anyhow, it takes vision, skill and discipline this are virtues they don’t sell in the market. This is why governance is different from leadership even though they are deeply interwoven, In leadership you can lead by morality, character, courage, religion, culture and especially money as in the case of Nigeria but in governance you cannot govern properly without ideas and that is why most of our governors are not successful in governance somehow they win elections but they are always lacking when it comes to governance because they lack ideas themselves and once you lack ideas it will be more difficult for you to cultivate or harvest ideas because ideas beget ideas. Therefore, instead of waiting for another four years to unleash criticism on you. I will prefer I share some ideas with you that can shape the next four years of your governance positively and progressively, consider these ideas as a contribution to the debate on how to move Kogi state forward.
As someone that has intentionally lived in Kogi state in the last eight years studying with great in-depth the peculiarities, problems and opportunities of the state these are my ideas on how to move Kogi state forward.
1. What exactly is the problem of Kogi State?
The problem of Kogi state is not a textbook problem, it is very important to know the first step to take because when you do so all other factors naturally fall into place and if you don’t grasp it you just jumble and wobble everything together and you return to where the problem started in the first place.
The problem of Kogi State is in two folds: one is economic and the second is political but I will start with the economic issue. The major economic issue confronting Kogi State is low productivity while constructing roads here and there, erecting street lights and others are good ideas and endeavors, it does not in any way change the fundamental structure of the economy, the only way to change the structure of the economy of Kogi State is to change the structure of productivity, and this can only be achieved by educational reform and industrialization. There is low productivity because the human development is low and industrialization barely exist, the low productivity itself leads to poverty and unemployment and this seems to be the most critical economic problem of the state. The economy we have at the moment is therefore closed in nature, when I say close am not talking about barriers alone but the inability of the state as an economic entity to connect with the value chains in real terms. Looking at the micro and macro economy of Kogi State there is the urgent need for economic expansion or else the state could be crippled by debt and over taxation.
The second problem is political but I will only talk briefly about it, this letter is more focused on the economic transformation of the state, but I must mention it because whenever and wherever there is politics without principle it always leads to economic disaster, economist have long appreciated the fact that you need a political ideology to drive the political economy to a successful end.
Our political and economic problems are deeply interrelated and interdependent, our politics is feeding the decayed economy and the decayed economy is in turn feeding the mediocre politics and as such the circle continues.
The problem is that Kogi state electorates are trapped, it is the same people that are jumping from one party to the other and more often than not they pollute the political atmosphere of the state and suffocate the terrain in such a way that ideas, ideology and merit are not able to rise to the fore front of our politics. The only solution to this is to surround yourself with people that are less political but more intelligent, decent, original and ideological. More so you are not running for a third term as the constitution does not allows for it, this is a rare opportunity for you to give governance your best shot ever.
2. The Urgent need for you to see the big picture
This is very important! There is the need to marry politics, economics, management and governance into an absolute and condensed view. The first thing you should do is sketch out the big picture and by this, I mean try to make an economic forecast
a. What are you expecting in the next four years (from the center)
b. How much will be committed to salaries in the next four years
c. How much will likely be available for capital projects
d. What would you be able to generate in the next four years internally
e. How much will be needed to achieve what you have in mind for the state
f. What economic legacy would you like to leave behind in the next four years
If you can put all these answers together then you are sitting on the big picture, you and your economic team must have ready answers to this even before kickoff, the advantage of this is that it gives you economic flexibility, swift economic direction and focus to face the challenges ahead. The big picture will not only discipline you but will help you to sell your ideas.
Looking at the economic trend since 2011 and by my forecast you should expect a minimum of N370 billion in four years which can increase to N450billion, if the finance at the national level is favorable and very unlikely if there is an economic jackpot from the Centre it could even get to N550billion.
The truth of the matter is that you need a minimum of N700bn to make a serious impact in the state and you need as much as N1trillion to be economically viable as a state. With the present salary structure, you will be needing as much as N280billion for salaries in the next four years (State and LGA) but if you are to pay the new minimum wage you might be committing as much as N365billon on salaries, wages and pensions alone in the next four years.
Another critical issue that will shape your governance is to make a decision ahead, are you going to allow the Local Government Areas (LGA) to enjoy full autonomy or you are going to be actively involved in how they are managed? This is a decision for you to make. Most of my analysis is premised on the state and LGA finance managed together just like you did in the last four years.
3. Narrow down the Details to what matters
One of the problems of your administration in the last four years is lack of a cogent economic plan or blue print.
I went through the economic blueprint of the last four years, about 700 pages in three different volumes and immediately I knew it was not a game changer, how can any man not even a super man can execute what is inside 300 pages talk less of 700 pages! The same thing I noticed when I read the Wada think tank report in 2011 which was exactly like a text book.
As an executive if you cannot narrow down the multifarious problems of the state in to three or maximum of six outlines and connect it with your internal vision your four years might likely be a waste.
The Marshal plan that rescued the whole of Europe after the world war was less than 10pages, the New Deal that brought back America from the great recession was less than 10 pages, even the whole APC manifesto is 32 pages (yet the States and the Federal Government is struggling hard to meet up with the content).
Another good example is Kogi State budget which is always over 300 pages meanwhile America which is a large developed country(bigger than Nigeria) has a budget of 180 pages. Any policy direction document or manifesto need not be cumbersome.
Any government that lacks the ability to put things into perspective and narrow it down to the punch line or what matters in real terms will end up wasting time and resources. Our elders said “too much words do not fill a basket” in modern times, all manifestos and all public policy documents are not just meant to be short but to have a time and work schedule with a clear budget.”
4. Kogi State Salary Trust Fund
I think the first thing you should do is nip the salary issue in the bud by ensuring that you don’t find yourself in a situation whereby you cannot pay salary for too long. At least create a situation whereby for two months Kogi State can pay salary without allocations from the center. The Kogi State Salary Trust Fund(KSTF) will stabilize the salary issue. If you are to continue with the present salary structure then you will need N13billion (it covers two months) to kick off the KSTF Programme and if you are to pay the 30 % increase you will need a minimum of N20billion (it covers two months) to kick off.
The question is how do you generate this fund. Between 2016/2017 the federal allocation for State and local Government was N135bn (ministry of finance) therefore within two years dedicating just 10%(13.5bn) of the allocation to KSTF will have guaranteed two months’ full payment of salary at any time. And if the scheme were to cover four years with an allocation of N280 between 2016 to 2020 KSTF will boast of N28bn.
Again, let’s look at it this way; if we are to commit 10% of all allocations in one year which is in the region of N7bn plus 50% of IGR as it were(N6bn) then within a year we shall have as much as N13bn to kick start the KSTF. By doing this you might even pay the 13th month salary before the end of your tenure.
5. Internal Generated Revenue (IGR)
The battle for the soul of your second tenure is indeed in the IGR, while I must commend the startup of the IGR at inception of your government I must state that two years after there is nothing radical or outstanding about it any longer you urgently need to infuse new ideas and new thinking on how to increase the revenue drastically. For any government to have enough to throw around for the development of the state such government will need as much as N200 billion generated in four years, which is almost unachievable as things are at the moment.
Raise the stake any IGR chairman that cannot raise the IGR between 2-3billion monthly in a year should make way for goal getters, I for one I cannot see why Kogi cannot generate as much as N70 billion in two years, at least we should be able to generate half of our salary bills monthly and should be able to pay our own salaries from IGR in another four years.
You need a revenue team that that can see beyond taxation as a form of revenue only, in contemporary metropolis this is how the revenue base looks like;
Tax is 25%
Investment is 40%
Service is 35%
In the case of Kogi and most state in Nigeria, tax is between 70-100% as the revenue structure, this is totally wrong, it shows lack of innovation and ideas on how to increase the wealth of the states.
Presently this is the structure of Internal Generated Revenue (IGR) in Kogi State
Payee revenue is 60%
Direct assessment is 1%
Road tax 4%
MDAs Revenue 28%
Other tax is 7%
Source: (NBS)
As it were the highest form of tax comes from salary, this is wrong and I think it is time for your government to re-engineer it, the payee tax should be less than 40% of our total tax structure.
If the Revenue sector is ready to reform and re-invent itself more than 10,000 fresh tax payers can be brought into the tax payers fold within the state. Since this an executive summary I will limit my ideas on Revenue generation to this but you must know there are so many green fields to be harvested in the area of revenue generation in Kogi State.
6. Industrialization
There is a point when business becomes the business of government and Kogi State is at that point at the moment, Nigeria is at such point and Africa at large seems to be at such point also, we are at such point because there are market failures everywhere, where do we even start from? Security, Road Network, lack of skilled manpower, energy, Bureaucracy, Capital and other market failures, it becomes the business of the government to push, kick start or jumpstart the industrialization process and even if the government cannot fill in the gap totally she must be involved to the extent that market failures will not overcome the business potential of the state. By doing this the government is not doing anything extra ordinary, she is just taking a cue from countries like Brazil, China, Vietnam and other Asian Tigers that have kick started their economy by the government playing an active role in industrialization.
As things stands at the moment the government might have to wait for 100 years if all she will do is to fold her arms and wait for inventors to come to the state This is no time to wait but a time to act.
a. Water Industry
Millions of tons of water flow away from the River Niger, I believe there is a big industrial opportunity attached to it. As at 2016 Nigerians spent as much as N938bn on bottle water alone (Euro Monitor) and I might be making the right guess to assume Nigeria drink as much as N500bn worth of pure water annually. With less than N10 billion Kogi state can have the best water bottling plant in West Africa, not only this; we can produce battery water, saline water, Hydrogen water and all forms of industrial, laboratory and medical waters, in doing this we can even partner with novates, Glaxo smith and other power house pharmaceuticals for quality control while for national distribution and haulage we can partner with Innoson Motors for haulage and all others, this industry can employ as much as 10,0000 Kogi sate citizen directly and indirectly, this industry could generate as much N10-20Bn annually to our internal generated revenue IGR at the climax of production.
b. Cassava Brewery
In the North Central Kogi and Benue are the highest producers of cassava there is immense opportunity here, 1.1 billion liters of beer is consumed in Nigeria and a revenue of N128bn is generated annually and it represent roughly 1% of our nominal GDP, the beer industry is not a joke in any way at all. Mozambique has made a profitable attempt at cassava beer, the famous Impala beer is a cassava beer that has sold as sold over 100mn bottles (financial times) and the third most popular beer in Mozambique I don’t see any reason why Kogi cannot take a cue from this, it will give us the opportunity to cut a slice from the very profitable beer industry in Nigeria, this will allow us to empower our teeming cassava growers and add value to their product. This industry could employ as much as 10,000 people directly and indirectly, over 500,000 farmers will benefit directly and it could add as much as N5-N10bn to our internal generated revenue annually within two years of effective management.
c. Cottage Industries
We must create cottage industries because of the rural areas and our townships which is overflowing with unemployment and poverty, the best we can do is to ensure that our commodities and raw materials are not only processed for the local market but regional markets. We have cassava, cashew, yam, woods and others, there is the need for packaging industries, there is the need for processing industries. The state could create as much as 40 cottage industries with less than N400mn across the length and breadth of the state and this could employ directly and indirectly as much as 12,000 people.
7. Technology
The future has come forget that Nigeria as a country and Kogi state is stocked in the past; Artificial Intelligence, Robotic technology, Internet of Things, Nano technology, 3D is now the new features of our civilization. There is a lot of work to be done in this area. Be as it may the beauty of technology is that it permeates every single sector of the economy and polity at large. The state needs to create a digital identity for her citizens as a matter of fact the state could immediately generate as much as N4bn within 6 months by creating a digital identity for all her citizens.
i. Create a digital agenda
The world has made serious advancement in terms of technology, but as it is Kogi State have no blueprint or policy document on how to close the digital divide in the state. This is totally wrong and it shows how unprepared we are for the future. How does the government comes in to close up the digital divide through infrastructure, policy formations, liberalization and others, quickly the state government needs to come up with a clear, succinct and realistic approach to closing the digital divide in the state, this agenda must also include developing our local contents to fit in into the new digital transformation?
ii. Create a digital ecosystem
As it is Lagos is the headquarters of digital hubs and start up in Nigeria but if we act fast Kogi State can easily become the hub for the Northern region, what we need to do is create an eco-system that attracts digital business and start ups
iii. Digital Education
There is the urgent need to introduce the learning of digital coding into our curriculum so that even before our students graduate from the higher institutions they are already employable in the I T and Digital sector
Closing the digital divide is something we must take extremely serious because without it Kogi state can never ever transform to a modern state and we can never build an all-inclusive financial or economic development system.
iv. Education
The Education sector is in a mess, we now graduate illiterates, not that they cannot read and write (though most cannot do just that properly) but the sound application of knowledge in terms of craft, enlightenment and innovation is missing.
The problem of education is very multifarious ranging from infrastructure itself to productivity, most of our schools are depleted and obsolete, the quality of the teachers is another mess entirely. How then can we salvage the process? The first thing we should focus on is the quality of education itself.
I opine that the education that Archimedes and Galileo had is even better than the education we are giving our children in this time and era. For me if a child cannot have it all I will rather that a child is thought under a tree with the best minds and great books than to be in a full Air conditioned glamourous class with incompetent teachers and worthless books.
a. Therefore, I strongly make a case for training and retraining of teachers (up-scaling of teachers)
b. Secondly, we need libraries in every nook and cranny of Kogi State, a well-read child will do far better in thoughts and action than a child with a lot of certificate but does not read, making books available will reduce the impact of lack of good teachers.
I propose that we start by ensuring there is a fully stocked library in every Local Government Area of Kogi State, great men and those who have changed the course of history and the world in general are products of the library. The library can make, mold, remake and remold Africa and mankind, with N5bn in four years we could have the best libraries in west Africa across the length and breadth of our state.
c. The third is to kick start Read Books Forever Project
This initiative will encourage and incentivize students to read books regularly outside the area of their normal studies, we should go ahead to introduce reading culture as an independent subject in our state curriculum, another N2billion could stock up libraries in our public colleges, the reading initiative could be restricted to secondary schools alone at the moment because of the cost.
d. Kogi State Technical Apprentice Education
Through this kind of Programme we can deepen the technical knowledge and experience of our graduates in which ever craft or endeavor they have chosen, the Kogi state government must have a working relationship with the private sectors, public sector, agencies, firms and organization that allows for our students to learn on the floor of the factories, field, offices, Farms, processing centers and all alike. If we can enlarge the program to foreign firms the better.
9. Stimulating the Local Economy
Officially Nigeria is the poverty headquarter of the world and Kogi state is at the center of it all. If you put your hear to the ground you will hear the larger majority complaining and grumbling deeply about lack of purchasing power, low patronage and hunger all this point to the need for economic stimulation.
The aim of economic stimulation is to uplift the economy financially and commercially when she undergoes a recession or sluggish growth which is exactly the case of Kogi State at the moment. In the management of the economy it is generally accepted that government is the highest spender but in assigning most of his functions and duties especially in acquisition, purchases and projects contractors are consigned to do the job. After the government contractors are the second highest spender thereafter industries and all that. Therefore, one of the surest way to stimulate the economy in Kogi State is empowering of local contractors.
Your government must identify important public projects and spilt them into micro units between N500,000-N2,000,000 and spread it within the local contractors, this could be done con-currently perhaps every six months and N2bn could be set aside for this kind of project, by doing this, local contractors will circulate funds within the system in terms of expenditure and purchases while infrastructure will expand ( A win- Win for the government and the people) If this process goes on and salaries are paid timely and in full the economy of the state will be stimulated over time.
Conclusion
Your Excellency considers these a contribution from a concerned citizen of the state who only wish for the state to move forward progressively regardless of who ever is the governor. Our elders say:
“you can only take the horse to the river you cannot force him to drink water” the bulks end at your table.
You and your team have a lot of thinking to do I do not envy you at all, to be a governor is one of the hardest job for a politician in Nigeria, naturally the office of a governor is set up to fail because of the ceremonial nature of the office , wasteful nature of the office, over blotted workforce, antiquated administrative practice and worst of all a crude politics that plays out around the office but if you are able narrow down the details to what matters you will be able to create a turnaround strategy for the state.
There are five other areas which I would have loved to write extensively about which is Agriculture, Infrastructure, Mineral resources, sports and Health. I hope my private endeavors will allow me to do so.
This is an Executive summary which I wouldn’t want to stretch too hard or too long. But keep it at the back of your mind that the battle ground of the next four years is going to be IGR, industry and education, as for the IGR there is a lot of ideas to play with and a lot of money to be made.
May God almighty give you understanding, diligence and the self-awareness to do better than your first term. Your Excellency I wish you God speed!
Hon. Abidemi Adebola Minorithy, Kogi West, Former Whip KGHA (2011-2015), Founder African Reading Project bhydexproject@gamil.com
